Dear Parishioners,

How are we doing as Catholics and Church in America? The reason I ask is because in 1992 two prominent sociologists*, one at the University of Washington and one at Purdue, predicted that U.S. Catholics would suffer a major membership decline. In their analysis they claimed that, like mainline Protestant denominations, we have moved from an energetic minority to a sedate mainline body, no longer in tension with our surrounding culture, less committed to our beliefs, unable to compete with a new generation of upstart sects, and no longer contributing to the churching of America. It’s both interesting and heartening to notice that current information about Catholic religious activities indicate the predictions of the two professors about the future of American Catholicism are simply not being fulfilled. Catholic membership continues to increase; Catholics continue to celebrate significant life events with church sacraments; Hispanic Catholics, despite predictions to the contrary, continue to participate in large numbers. American Catholics in large numbers work hard at being religious.

Loss of membership? The nine major mainline Protestant denominations in the U.S. lost 22% of their membership between 1970 and 1997, a decline of 5.8 million. In the same time period energetic Evangelical denominations gained 6.4 million adherents. Catholic membership patterns between 1970 and 1997 more closely resemble the Evangelical gains. Catholic membership grew from 37.1 million to 47.4 million, an increase of 27.7% Adult Catholics now represent 53% of the combined total number of Catholics and the 18 major Protestant denominations.

Declining Sacramental Life? Catholic participation in the sacraments represents another sign of Church vitality. As Andrew Greeley wrote in December last year, “Young people are still strongly attached to Catholicism, if in their own way. Despite all that we (pope, bishops, priests, lay staff, lay intellectuals) have done to them, we have not been able to drive them away from Catholicism!” One million youngsters, or 25% of all U.S. births, are brought to Catholic baptism each year; 85% of those baptized show up for first communion, and given the inherent difficulties between teens and adults, church practice and “growing up-rejection”, the Church fares remarkably well with 59% of those baptized choosing to celebrate Confirmation. The rate of Catholic participation in funerals remains steady while the percentage of Catholic marriage has dipped slightly. This is probably due to Church policies about remarriage rather than lack of interest on the part of Catholic couples.

The two professors* offer a general theory to predict religious decline. As Churches lower their demands, they lose their energy and attractiveness. As Baptists allow dancing, Methodists remove their prohibition against attending circuses and Catholic permit meat on Friday - they are headed for inertia and decline. For all the post Vatican II turmoil and updating, American Catholicism seems to prove their theory and presumptions false and the Church continues to present serious challenge, spiritual meaning and community support to large and ever increasing numbers.